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September 23, 2019

9/23/2019

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macro-monday

The market got the Fed cut it had expected, but sold off to end the week.  The bull / bear ratio of the SPY remains above 1.0, price remains up and above both moving averages and MF remains positive.  Fridays self-off led the OB/OS oscillator below 70, which is a good thing. We need to clear these overbought conditions to have any hope of breaking SPY 300 with any conviction. 
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The Bull / Bear ratio  is near that 1.5 sweet spot. We've found that above 2.0 signals exhaustion. We like to see the ratio above 1.0 but under 2.0.  Our sector trend releild financials and utilities leading the SPY sectors on the mostly fundamental Bull / Bear ratio.  This relationship doesn't tend to last too long. We'd expect to see that battle resolve itself sooner, rather than later.  We'd expect to see Utilities win this battle as bonds catch a bid. 
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