We think it's make or break time for the market rally. Our Macro-Monday analysis reveals the underlying bull / bear ratio of the SPY turning more bearish after nearly touching .50, which isn't exactly stellar. Applying the same metric to the SPY sectors, healthcare continues to lead with cyclicals virtually DOA. From a relative strength standpoint vs the SPY, gold and treasuries perform best yet again, not painting a great forward looking picture for the market. We are cautious here as governments attempt to use the defibrillator paddles on their economies. How much juice will it take to for the flat-line to show a little life? I guess thats what the coming weeks will reveal. Watch todays video to see how we use the edge, we believe the Chaiin Platform gives us.
We continue to recover from the vicious March sell-off in our paper money ETF portfolio. Our few remaining positions did not meet our our forced liquidation rules this week. Actually, as tech and healthcare have led the recent rally, we were able to initiate three new positions. $XBI, $XDS and $XLV all met our rules for acquisition. Watch todays video to understand how we use Chaikin Analytics to manage a simulated ETF portfolio.
relative strength wednesday
Relative Strength Wednesday! Despite the impressive rally in price over the last week, we are seeing little change in our Relative Strength analysis.
Despite the recent strength in the market, the breadth is narrow and our market posture remains market neutral- negative potential as price of the SPY remains below a falling Chaikin Trend. As you can see in the charts below, the bull/ bear ratio remains weak at 0.29. We continue to see the number of bearish stocks increase at a quicker pace than bullish additions. As far as the SPY Secors, Healthcare, communications are the only sectors with positive bull / bear ratios. Tech is the best of the worst. Lastly, when it comes to relative strength vs the market on a six month lookback, gold, bond and currencies continue to outperform and signal better relative performance in the near-term. Watch todays video to see how we use the Chaikin Analytics app to help us develop our macro opinion.
This week we managed the country 1, country 2 and macro portion of our simulated ETF portfolio. As a reminder, we started this portfolio just before the 2018 Q4 pullback. We have manged to stay in the game using our rules alongside the Chaikin Analytics platform. Granted its paper money, but we feel validated in our approach and more prepared in our personal trading and decision making. Particularly so when it comes to our delta neutral holdings. We were able to manage a small portfolio of undefined risk though an historic pullback. While we are not out of the woods yet, we are still down about $900
(papermoney) Breakeven is within sight. We don't play to break even but given the environment and events we just lived through, we'll count it as a win! This week we added to our top three macro holdings, $TLT, GLD and $IEF. We also added $QQQ to our Country Level 1 holdings. Watch todays video to see how we manage a simulated ETF portfolio using our own set rules alongside the Chaikin App.
relative strength wednesday
Our relative strength Wednesday analysis once again shows defensives leading the charge, however we did notice positive money flow in virtually every ETF we track. Performing exceptionally well is XLV. Price of the XLV is now above a rising short and long term moving average with positive money flow. Watch today's video to see how we use Chaikin Analytics to find relative strength in this crazy market.
. Once again the data tells us that the extraordinary rally off the March lows has been extremely narrow. The rally has yet to produce significant improvement to the underlying fundamentals of the names that are contained within the indices. The Bull - Bear ratio remains weak, unable to reach anything more than a .30 - .40 which is a shadow of its former self. Any underlying fundamental strength exists within the ETFs is in Healthcare and to some extent, tech. As far as relative strength is concerned gold, bonds and currencies outperform all other assets. Compared to the rest of the world China is showing more resilient relative Strength against our benchmark with is the SPY. Watch today's video to see how we use the Chaikin Analytics app to gain our weekly 30,000 ft. view of the market.
relative strength wednesday
Our weekly Relative Strength analysis once again helped convince us in our mild-bearish posture. We see no relative strength in cyclicals, defensives are leading the way. As expected, virtually sector is overbought. Very overbought.
In addition to our RS work, we spent a few minutes with the Chaikin Analytics screener looking for possible bearish entry opportunities in ETFs.
Watch todays video to see how we use Chaikin ANalytics to hunt for Relative strength and how we utilize the screener based on our market posture.
ollowing a short & strong week for the market, we kick-off a new week with our macro-monday analysis. While the bull v bear ratio has improved slightly, we are very cautious and believe a move back lower is probable. Defensives including utilities and Health Care continue to show strength, as noted in our sector bull v bear chart below.
Also below, our relative strength charts show strong relative strength in bond and gold. Gold looks to have broke out late last week and continues that move into this week. We can only assume the strength in XLB is related to the move in precious metals. Financials are also seeing some strength in terms of performance and money flow. Commodities lead in sub sectors along with telcom, which of course is a play on yield.
Watch todays short video for our compolete macro-monday analysis.