It's Relative Strength Wednesday! The recession trade appears to have unwound quick! The defensives that were holding the market up when the "R" word was being thrown around earlier this year have now retreated to the the bottom of our Relative Strength Wednesday analysis. Money flow has snuck back in to the SPY and cyclicals, however price on several of the SPY sector ETFs has moved significantly away from the 200 day MA, which makes us cautious, if not nervous. Watch today's video to see how we use Chaikin Analytics to track strength in the market.
Todays Macro-Monday continues to show a rebound in the cyclicals. Also, a little life in a sector that has been dead for all of 2019. Watch todays video to see how we use Chaikin Analytics to to form our macro opinion. Also, we add a trade to our forward test of the Chaikin Checklist.
View all of our Macro -Monday charts HERE
Relative Strength Wednesday
Our weekly look at what is driving the market on a relative strength basis, Relative Strength Wednesday. Watch today's video to learn more about the dramatic RS rotation out of interest rate sensitive sectors like XLU and XLRE and into cyclicals like XLF, XLK and XLI.
Despite having available capital to put to work in or simulated ETF portfolio, we struggled to find domestic candidates that meet or entry rules. In the end, we added to our tech holdings with a trounche of XLK. The market as a whole seems to be held up by very few underlying sub sectors and stocks. Watch today's video for more explanation and to see how we se Chaikin ANalytics to manage our simulated ETF portfolio.
As we go on two weeks with overbought conditions, the market may be ready to clear conditions on the back of the recent fed action. After our daily tour of the market, we turn to managing our simulated ETF portfolio. We now have 13 months under our belts with this portfolio and have basically tread water though the ups and downs of the year. We have beat our benchmark, the ACWI, with less loss.
A few big movers discovered this week. Tech gains, discretionary falls financials remain strong. Watch todays video to see how we use Chaikin Analytics to help determine our posture and keep track of relative strength in the market.
Money flow remains weak across most sectors, and we remain overbought, however price remains up and above both Chaikin MA's, So we remain Market up.
The bugle has widened, with more S&P sectors outperforming the SPY on a mostly fundamental Chaikin Bull : Bear ratio basis. Bonds have sold off ahead of the Fed this week and Financials have rallied. Other interest sensitive stocks have also taken pause. including XLRE and XLU. Watch todays video to see how we form out Macro opinion using Chaikin Analytics.
The market call remains " Market Up", but perhaps our most cautious " Market Up " call to date. The market is very overbought and money flow remains negative as we touch former resistance. Earnings continue to drive the day to day absent unforseen trade tweets and headlines. So far, earnings appear to be mixed. In addition to earnings the market waits to hear from Uncle Jerome next week. Will the FOMC deliver the 1/4 point cut that is expected?
Today we managed our simulated ETF portfolio. We have been trading the portfolio for more than a year. While our P/L is currently in the red, we have outperformed our benchmark, the ACWI. Today we managed our COuntry 1 & Country 2 holdings as well as our Macros.
The trend in EWL is busted, which triggered an immediate and full liquidation, according to our rules. That liquidation freed up some capital for us to reinvest in EWT & EWJ as they met all of our rules of acquisition. Watch todays video to see how we use Chaikin ANalytics and our own rules to manage an ETF portfolio.