February 16th, 2020

US Large Caps hit all time highs on Friday. But is bullish rated and bullishing trending SPY showing signs of fatigue as it hits overbought on the ob/os oscillator?  Though persistent, money flow is diverging from price, with smaller peaks at each new swing high.  Meanwhile, bonds are in the throes of intermediate term sideways price action, but a near-term bullish uptrend, oversold conditions and increasingly persistent money-flow might be foretelling some kind of pause for equities.  Bonds are relatively weak vs. the market in terms of price action, but I'm considering an in the money diagonal option trade on TLT - a tight stop under the Chaikin long-term trend for the long call and a covered write near 150 (March expiration) if price continues to move up tomorrow.  Just a small hedge trade. Not looking for bonds to explode.