As we go on two weeks with overbought conditions, the market may be ready to clear conditions on the back of the recent fed action. After our daily tour of the market, we turn to managing our simulated ETF portfolio. We now have 13 months under our belts with this portfolio and have basically tread water though the ups and downs of the year. We have beat our benchmark, the ACWI, with less loss.
A few big movers discovered this week. Tech gains, discretionary falls financials remain strong. Watch todays video to see how we use Chaikin Analytics to help determine our posture and keep track of relative strength in the market.
Money flow remains weak across most sectors, and we remain overbought, however price remains up and above both Chaikin MA's, So we remain Market up.
The bugle has widened, with more S&P sectors outperforming the SPY on a mostly fundamental Chaikin Bull : Bear ratio basis. Bonds have sold off ahead of the Fed this week and Financials have rallied. Other interest sensitive stocks have also taken pause. including XLRE and XLU. Watch todays video to see how we form out Macro opinion using Chaikin Analytics.
The market call remains " Market Up", but perhaps our most cautious " Market Up " call to date. The market is very overbought and money flow remains negative as we touch former resistance. Earnings continue to drive the day to day absent unforseen trade tweets and headlines. So far, earnings appear to be mixed. In addition to earnings the market waits to hear from Uncle Jerome next week. Will the FOMC deliver the 1/4 point cut that is expected?
Today we managed our simulated ETF portfolio. We have been trading the portfolio for more than a year. While our P/L is currently in the red, we have outperformed our benchmark, the ACWI. Today we managed our COuntry 1 & Country 2 holdings as well as our Macros.
The trend in EWL is busted, which triggered an immediate and full liquidation, according to our rules. That liquidation freed up some capital for us to reinvest in EWT & EWJ as they met all of our rules of acquisition. Watch todays video to see how we use Chaikin ANalytics and our own rules to manage an ETF portfolio.
To get you ready for tomorrow's Macro-Monday trading meeting video, I've updated our sub sector analysis in Market Conditions. This is an analysis outside the Chaikin ecosystem which tracks the relative strength trend of 30 or so subsectors, commodities, currencies, and economic zones around the world. If you see a green highlight on the sector column, that means the 10 week EMA has crossed above the 40 week EMA. If you see a green highlight under "date", then price has crossed above the 21 day EMA (the short term Chaikin trend). I updated the date on the spreadsheet, despite the incorrect one you see on the screen shot below. -- Mike Money flow is hard to come by this week, though I do see a set up for IGOV, which we'll be watching closely. Strong Money flow during a intermediate term correction makes it less likely that the weekly uptrend will continue despite weakness on the daily chart.
After our daily look at the major indices, we fired up the Chaikin Analytics screener tool. As the market has become overbought into negative money flow, we were looking for bearish opportunity. Watch todays video to see how we use the Chaikin Screener and what we found!
Relative STRENGTH Wednesday
Our relative Strength Wednesday analysis further emphasises few sectors are currently outperforming the market on multiple timeframes. Those that are outperforming are the defenses and interest rate sensitive. Watch todays video for our most important meeting every week... Relative Strength Wednesday
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While today's market call is "market up", it is our most hated Market up call. YEs, both averages are pointing up and price is above both, however it happened in the context of negative money flow and OB/OS oscillators that are in danger of forming divergences and rolling over. As a matter of fact, all of the indices currently have negative money flow. Watch todays video for our complete Macro-Monday analysis using the Chaikin ANalytics app and discover why we are currently very cautious.
We also turn to our " Chaikin Checklist" for some long overdue trade management. As a reminder we are placing paper trades using the Chaikin Checklist as a trigger alongside our own set of management and exit rules.
After our daily tour of the market pre-open we shift to adding to our simulated ETF portfolio.
While we had several ETFs to choose from, the four below were the displayed the best performance and met the rules of our trading plan.
Watch todays video to see how we use Chaikin Analytics alongside our own set of rules to manage an ETF portfolio.