Here is today's Macro Monday Chaikin Power Users trading meeting video. Below is the relative strength trend for each major sector ETF and the current Powerbar Differential. Gives a complete picture of sector rotation over the past few months and where money is likely to flow in the coming 3 to 6 months. The 1 - 6 month time frames are based on sector % return performance, and the Power Bar Diff score is simply the ratio of Very Bullish and Bullish Stocks to Bearish and Very Bearish Stocks in each sector.
The Bull Bear ratio continues to improve. today we have the most bullish fundamental ratio we have seen since February. Moneyflow continues to improve and show strength, yet the market remains very overbought. We have managed our paper swing trade portfolio over the past 2 days. maybe a bit surprising, our bearish trades have faired well despite the recent grind higher. Our bearish rules of weak industry, trend and moneyflow coupled with our new Q3 oscillator exit rules have saved us on the bearish side a few times. Our swing trades portfolio is only holding on to a few trades as the proximity of earnings have kept us out of most of the recent set-ups. Join us for our Friday meeting HERE
Our Relative Strength Wednesday analysis showed us a noticeable decline in "green lights" this week. Tech is the only sector that is signaling positive relative strength in all three time frames we track. The market looks to be in transition. Which sectors are set to lead? Join us for Relative Strength Wednesday to see how we use Chaikin Analytics to establish our opinion. Watch HERE
q2 Final Bullish Swing Trading Results
We have closed out all Q2 Bullish swing trades. Trading conditions were bullish, and both our win rate and net returns delivered positive expectancy. The average trade lasted 2 weeks. Watch the Macro Monday trading video (video here) for a review of the trading rules we had in place during the Spring what's changed since for Summer Q3 trading.
With companies in the throes of earnings season, we thought we'd take this chance to start updating you on our Q2 Chaikin Analytics powered report card, starting with our trend trades. Most trades falling under our trend-following strategy are still running. Only 7 of more than 30 trades initiated between April 1st and June 31st, 2018 have been closed out, with 5 losers averaging roughly 7% to the downside and 2 winners averaging an 11%+ gain. Of the remaining unsettled trades, unrealized winners are outpacing losers by a better than 2:1 to rate, with gains on unrealized winners not quite 2:1 vs. losers. Since our exit rules set stop losses 5% below each stock's long term Chaikin trend, it will likely be until the next broad market sell-off before we can report our final performance numbers.
How bullish are we? Todays meeting influenced our personal opinions. While the market is overbought, and a pull back is in order, the bull v bear ratio continues to show strength, or at least less weakness. The bull v bear ratio has remained at or above 1:1 for 6 of the previous 7 days and price has remained above both long and short term moving averages. Join us for our daily analysis and stick around as we manage our existing swing trades. Today we closed our final swing trade from Q2 2018. Mike will have the final results of our forward test tomorrow. Watch todays meeting HERE
It's Relative Strength Wednesday. Trading meeting video is here. (give it time to render if you receive an error).
Market conditions today prior to the open: neutral powerbars, strong technicals, overbought conditions. Market likely to move higher.
Today's trading: market moves higher. Bullish engulfing pattern, strengthening money flow, but overbought conditions. Tomorrows trading meeting will help us form an opinion about whether market price will be rejected at the upper volatility band (which it is now touching) or whether there will be slow grind higher clinging to the upper volatility band. This is my prediction: any upside move will be muted and subject to headline risk. Once we get expiration, seasonal patters are not kind to the bulls . Traders will need to pick and choose very carefully which sectors and industry groups will win the tussle with the bears. Being in the right sectors and industry groups will very bullish stocks showing "dynamic duo patterns" of positive Power Gauges and solid relative strength has never been more critical. Tomorrow is Relative Strength Wednesday, powered by Chaikin Analytics. Just the edge we need.
The market is finally giving us a Powerbar differential score above one and a green light on price and direction of moving averages. But without the participation of industrials, basic materials and other cyclicals and the market now overbought, if prices continues to move higher, we'd expect a slow grind rather than an explosion, and conditions are vulnerable to a sharp reversal. Trading video here.
It may be Friday the 13th, but the market and VIX don't seem to be too scared despite the recent turbulence and trade disputes. The bull v bear ratio rises above 1:1 again today and price has again moved above a rising 200 day. The market is overbought and money-flow has decreased, however remained positive throughout the recent pull back. Are we poised to break out and move higher? today we examine the probability of the move. We also report back to you on the progress of our trend trading strategy and forward test. In the context of when we initiated the portfolio, it could have went much worse. So, how did we do? Join us HERE and find out!