Below is a relative strength rank trend vs. SPY. We use a relatively new indicator called RSMK, which measures relative strength vs. an underlying index over a specific lookback period. Below, we're trending multiple lookback periods up to 200 days. It's simply a rank of relative out or underperformance of each ETF vs. the benchmark SPY.
Below are long running macro indicators, including our daily look at the Chaikin SPY bull:bear ratio. Also displayed below our trending chart of SPY Sector bull:bear ratios. Looks as if the market may be tapping the brakes just a bit as discretionary continues to weaken and financials take a fundamental hit. Lastly, trending Chaikin RS scores, six month look back against the SPY. EM makes a move this week and gold hangs in.
Recent strength in the Dry Shipping ETF and commodities, particularly metals bear watching. The rest of world, ex-US (EFA, EEM and VEU) all showing relative strength in past 10 to 15 weeks.
relative strength wednesday
Our relative strength Wednesday analysis continues to show some strength in cyclicals and defensives in the bottom half. The fight over interest rates continues as financials lose a little momentum and real estate picks it up. Watch todays video to see how we use Chaikin Analytics to follow relative strength in the market, incorporating technicals and Chaikin fundamentals.
We entered our first trade today using a new set of rules. All the Chaikin metrics factore into the set-up. The trade trigger, however, is the 50 Day Simple Moving Average. This is a combo swing/trend trading plan, with exits if the MA is breached or a price target is achieved. More in today's video.
Charts discussed in our Macro-Monday meeting below.
On Thursday, we managed ETF liquidations and parted ways (with such sweet sorrow) with half of our $GLD position. Rules are rules, and while GLD is grinding through a relentless sideways consolidation, other more cyclical parts of the economy are outperforming on a 3 month basis. We waited until today to buy, giving the crazy single day self off a chance to self correct. Our intermediate time-frame trend following rules can frustrate us at times, our delta neutral option strategies can crush our hopes and dreams at other times...and when the two combine to inflict max pain and suffering, trading life can become overwhelming if not life-sucking. Yet, we maintain devotion to our one and true overlord - our trading rules. With strangles inverted and rolled, offering little in the way of defensive management options, we really have just two choices. Option 1: do nothing and count on a "Ray of Light" to shine through the S&P's extremely overbought condition to clear a management path to a roll forward for added credits while inverted. Option 2: Be thankful for this week's positive delta additions to our mostly tech stock portfolio. May it help us hedge against a continuation of the relentless one way move to the upside. But, if not, accept liquidation of SPY inverted sold puts at a loss as next week's planned sacrifice to the Gods of losses. Because, thou can't roll forward unless thou does so for a credit. But, as thou looks at overnight futures price action, thou can see clearly now the "reign" is on. We may be getting our pullback. Crazy market.
relative strength wednesday
Our relative strength Wednesday shows fundamentals catching up with technicals. It all shows more cyclicals entering the top half of the analysis and defensives in the bottom half. For the first time in our relative strength wednesday analysis, all eleven SPY sectors have rising 200 days and 21 day MA and positive money flow. The bull is running, but most sectors remain overbought.
Our Macro Monday analysis continues to pain the picture of a very bullish recovery. Perhaps some of the most bullish signs we've seen since the march bottom. With the bull vs bear ratio exploding above 1.0 for the first time and a widening breadth of positive bull vs bear ratios among the SPY sectors. However, the Chaikin oscillator remains vey overbought and price is now outside the upper volatility band as the 21 day attempts to cross the 200 day Chaikin moving average. While the signs are bullish, our experience with the Chaikin Analytics platform tells us that an exhaustion point may be near. Watch today's vedio to see how we use the Chaikin Analytics platform to gain a 30,000 ft. view.