The energy story came undone just a bit this week in our simulated ETF portfolio. Our rules told us to liquidate half of our $XLE position, as well as half of our $XOP and $XES positions. We also said sayonara to half of our $KRE position, which was a little surprising in the same week which XLF was at the top of our buy stack. There continue to be some churn under the surface of this market. The tech names that had been leading, no longer are out front. This week we saw some a few retail oriented sectors get a little life, including $XRT and $XHB, both of which we added to our sector 2 holdings. Other additions include $XLF and $KCE. Watch todays video to see how we put Chaikin Analytics to work managing our simulated paper money ETF portfolio.
Here are Mike's closed trades for the year (not including ETF portfolio trades):
Below are the trades still working.
Two more. The EWV is an inverted leveraged (bearish) ETF. It goes up when the Japanese market goes down. We have a very small position of 66 shares.
Outside of our ETF Plan, where we are overbearingly transparent, I have not been good about posting follow up results of sample trades tied to what was covered in each morning's Chakin Power User meeting. I've attempted to reconcile that below. It probably won't surprise you to learn that while the market was screaming bullishly higher, most our closed trades have been winners. That's not the reality in the long run. The Chaikin app can substantially improve results and give traders an edge when making directional bets, but no modeling algorithm will deliver 95% winners in the long run.
We don't always size our trades, but rather trade one lots. Always look at the return percentage gained or lost to measure the magnitude of success.
A quick look at recent relative strength among our chosen indicators. As of late, it's all commodities all the time. However over the past 6months, despite recent pull-backs, Cryto and Energy are still up nearly 50%. There is no mistaking, the market is changing. High flying tech, is no longer flying, commodities have been taking off.
A bit of a red week for us in our paper ETF portfolio. As of the open Thursday, our balance was down a bit to $569K. This week only saw one liquidation, we exited what was left of our $XSD position as tech continues to show RS weakness against our benchmark, the $ACWI. We are now completely our of tech. Our holdings are now largely made up of energy and financial ETF's. This week we added to the theme with additions of $XES and $XLF.
We sat on our hands in terms of our delta neutral portfolio, as we transition to a new delta neutral strategy, which we are excited to share in the coming days.