This week a two-part ETF management video. We focused on our international and macro holdings this week. This week we reduced or eliminated our position in 5 of our international holdings, we added to only three SPY, EWW and EWL. Watch this weeks video to see how we manage our simulated ETF portfolio.
Relative Strength Wednesday
Our weekly Relative Strength Wednesday showed us little change, despite the move down earlier in the week. There is no question, at this point the market is tech. Utilities hold steady in in the Top 3rd as financials feel the strengthening bond market. Materials may be an interesting bearish trade as it approaches overbought with bearish Chaikin metrics. Watch todays video for what we think is our most important analysis each week... We really put the Chaikin Analytics App through the paces on Wednesdays.
We woke up to a big move down in the market. If you have been following along, this wasn't really a surprise to us. We have noted the bond market telegraphing a potential move like this for a few weeks now. We also noted when the Chaikin Bull : Bear atio hits the 2.5 - 3 range, which it did last week, it has been a signal of a short-term top. ( our Bull V Bear chart s slide 1 of the images below.) The market was extremely overbought and ripe for a decent pullback. We have yet to see any major damage being done to the market, however there rotations in play. The bond market is attracting some money flow along with Utilities. Of course there will be a counter move, we are anxiously waiting to see what that looks like. Watch today's video for a timely and complete macro analysis.
ETF Thursday! We focused on our U.S. holding today. Little action was required as our holdings are doing well against our benchmark, ACWI and we are fully invested. We were forced to liquidate 1/2 of our XHB holdings as 3 month performance has waned. We also swapped a little tech for a little bio tech, to bring our max tech allocation back in line. Watch today's video to see how we use Chaikin Analytics alongside our own rules to manage a simulated ETF portfolio.
Relative Strength Wednesday
Making up for time off Monday, we do an abbreviated Macro-Monday followed by our weekly analysis of Relative Strength. We also discussed SPY amazing run and the fact that price is well above the 200 day MA. We also noted that the bull : Bear ratio is now hovering around 3.0, which history has shown to be a ceiling . We saw multiple supporting factors that make us suspect a bond rally is coming. Including, obviously strong bonds but also weakening financial and strengthening Utilities. Watch today's video for our complete Macro-Monday and Relative Strength Wednesday.
During our weekly management of our simulated ETF portfolio, we discovered that Ireland has weakened enough to demand we liquidate our entire position. It looks as if the weakness will be short-lived, but we must follow our rules. In the end we added more U.S. to our country level one holdings, three different country two names and, believe it or not a Macro ETF. Watch todays video to see how we use Chaikin Analytics to manage our simulated portfolio and which international ETFs we added this week.
Relative Strength WEdnesday
This weeks edition of Relative Strength Wednesday once again showed the markets breadth is narrow. More narrow than last week, infact. Financials take a breather as the bond market rallies, its all tech all the time. XLK and XLC, which is largely comprised on FB & GOOG lead this weeks analysis. You'll see that on a Relative Strength performance basis, only tech and XLC are outperforming the SPY on all three measured time frames.
Watch todays video to see how we use Chaikin Analytics to help spot and follow relative strength trends.
Our weekly look at the Macros behind the market revealed little new information. The breadth of the market remains fairly narrow, three S&P sectors are doing the work. XLK, XLV, XLF remain the strongest from a fundamental view. However, we are beginning to see signs of money rotating out of financials, perhaps setting up for a run in the bond market and utilities. We are also watching dollar strength and it's affect on commodities.
After our robust look at Marco forces, we turned to the Chaikin Screener to look for opportunities. Ultimately, earnings proximity keeps us out of most trades, but we did find a favorable entry in an IT services. Watch todays video for our complete Macro Monday review and screener results.
ETF THURSDAY & Friday
Part 1 (Thursday meeeting)
part 2 (coming soon)
Our simulated ETF portfolio had a netliq of $513K( paper money) at the start of our Thursday meeting. Into our 15th month managing this portfolio, and finally starting to show gains.
This week we managed the U.S. side of the portfolio. We did encounter forced liquidations ( which you will see in part 1 ) We were forced to fully liduitate KRE and KBE on a six month RS trend break. We're fairly certain the trend will recover but you have to stick to your rules! We also liquidated half of our position in XHB as 3 months returns fell below our benchmark, the ACWI.
Lastly, in our part 2 video, we manage the delta neutral portion if this portfolio. We were able to take 1 strangle off the board for slightly better than a wash and add a new Feb position. We also were forced to manage two other strangers which the call side has been challenged. Watch part 2 if you'd like to see how we manage out delta neutral strategy.
relative strength wednesday
Despite the overnight headlines, the market opened up. Our Relative Strength Wednesday shows Healthcare, Financials and Tech continue to be out front. Following our in depth Relative Strength analysis we fired up the Chaikin Analytics Screener tool. We show you how we use the screener to find bullish and bearish trades. Spoiler alert, earnings are beginning to be a problem for initiating new trades.