Our Macro-Monday analysis ( recorded on Sunday) raised several red flags. While we have yet to flip bearish, we are growing more and more cautious with a bullish bias.
Watch todays video to see how we use Chaikin Analytics to form our macro opinion.
This week we once again found ourselves liquidating several positions based on our rules.
We were forced to cut our positions in $ EWL, $EWQ, and $RSX on breakdown of the 3 month relative strength performance vs our benchmark, the $ACWI. We liquidated the entirety, less than one tranche, our our position in $EWC for the same reason. What might have been a little unexpected was the forced liquidation of some of our Macro holdings in the energy sector. full liquidations were triggered for our positions in $USL & $DBC
Again this week, we found narrow breadth. Because we have had this narrow breadth for some time, our allocation limits are being tested if not already achieved. So, we remain under-invested in our simulated ETF portfolio. We did add a handful of ETFFs for consideration to our macro watch list, and two made the cut this week. This week we added $QQQ, $ EIS, $UNG, $LIT & $CLOU
Watch todays video to see how we use Chaikin Analytics alongside our own rules to manage a paper ETF portfolio.
This week we focused on the U.S. side of our paper money portfolio. Our portfolio began the day with a balance of roughly $570,000, with only $397,000 invested. Well below our limit of more than $460,000. Our rules have been keeping us from being fully invested for sometime, this week was no different.
This wee only saw us liquidate one position. We let go of the rest of our position in $XLF on continued 3 month relative strength weakness. Also worth noting, $XRT is now underperforming against our benchmark, $ACWI on a 3 month basis. However, because $XRT is underperforming by less than 1%, we will not sell any of the position, rather we will not add to it.
This week we added to our positions in $XLK, $XLV, $XLC. We would have added more to our existing position in $XLRE, but we have reached our max allocation in real estate.
In U.S. sector 2, we added $XHB and $KCE. Various rules kept us from adding positions in $RWR, $XSW and $XRT, as mentioned above.
We start September with a bullish but cautious posture. Watch todays video to see how we use Chaikin Analytics alongside our own rules to manage a simulated paper money ETF portfolio.
Once again our rules kept a lot of our available cash on the sidelines this week. Those same rules triggered partial liquidations in two international holdings and one macro holding. This week we liquidated half of our position in $EWQ, $EWC and $RWX.
Meanwhile due to the fact that we are fully allocated on the tickers that continue to out-perform, we only added three tranches to our international and macro portfolio. This week we added $QQQ, $EWL and more $USL.
To see in real time how we use Chaikin Analytics along side our own set of rules to manage a paper money ETF portfolio watch todays video.
Buy the dip? Look out below? Nope, follow our rules, stick to position size limits to reduce risk and keep trading. ETF Thursday video is below.
This week our rules told us to sell half of our $XLF position on a breakdown of 3-month relative strength. We all sold all of our reaming $XOP position as 6 month relative strength broke down against our benchmark $ACWI.
We have been under invested for weeks, and that continues. we had more than $100K (paper money) to invest but only found 4 ETFs on the U.S. side that met our rules.
Today we added $XLRE, $XLV, $XLC, $KCE and initiated a new position in $XHB - totaling roughly $40K ( paper money) invested, leaving us $60K under invested. We won't force it, rather sit on an excess of cash.
We also managed positions to our delta neutral strategy. With such big moves this week, we were able to reduce risk on several of our our spreads and re-deploy spreads closer to the money on the the untested side.
Watch todays video to see how we use Chaikin Analytics alongside our own rules to manage a simulated ETF portfolio.