TLT Update: In late January , I sold 10 TLT put spreads, making a bet that bonds would rise after breaking out of a trading range. There was no Chaikin buy signal, but Money Flow and Relative Strength supported the trade. My rules call for selling a short strike with a probability of around 65% that price would finish out of the money at expiration. I close spread trades once and if they reach 50% of their max potential profit or a week prior to expiration.
January 14th - Opening trade: SOLD -10 VERTICAL TLT 100 FEB 16 122/120 PUT @.59
January 25th -Closing Trade: BOT +10 VERTICAL TLT 100 FEB 16 122/120 PUT @.29
A look at the long term, 5 year - weekly chart convinces me to take another bite at the apple this week. The oscillator reversed this week before reaching oversold. Relative strength and money flow remain strong in both the short and long term chart views. The market also reversed its shallow countertrend rally on Friday, giving me confidence that another move up or sideways price action in bonds is likely.
January 14th - Opening trade: SOLD -10 VERTICAL TLT 100 FEB 16 122/120 PUT @.59
January 25th -Closing Trade: BOT +10 VERTICAL TLT 100 FEB 16 122/120 PUT @.29
A look at the long term, 5 year - weekly chart convinces me to take another bite at the apple this week. The oscillator reversed this week before reaching oversold. Relative strength and money flow remain strong in both the short and long term chart views. The market also reversed its shallow countertrend rally on Friday, giving me confidence that another move up or sideways price action in bonds is likely.
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