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$FN Trade Update

3/29/2016

 
All it takes is ONE to make your Chaikin porfolio hum.   We bought FN an a Relative Strength Buy signal, following our rules in mid March.
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Very Bullish Power Gauge.  Check. 
Strong Industry Group. Check. 
Price above a rising Chaikin trend.  Check.
A persistency of Money Flow.  Check.
Market agrees with Power Gauge via Relative Strength indicator.  Check.
Osciallator rising up out of Oversold. Check.

Boom.  20%+ gain in 2 weeks.
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Swing Trading w/Chaikin Analytics

3/23/2016

 
Using Chaikin Analytics for profitable swing trades.  The latest Mark Chaikin Webinar is Thursday afternoon.  Register here.  Even if you cannot attend, by signing up, you'll get a link to the recording in your email.  Details below.
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So, How Am I Doing?

3/16/2016

 
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Breakeven for the year.  Basically, I got burned trading some call spreads near the bottom.  The positions I carried on them were to big.    They've offset gains made on Chaikin Analytics  driven profitable stock picks.    Position sizing is EVERYTHING in trading. 
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Today, I added Very Bullish Genpact ($G) on an Oversold Buy Signal.  The stock is fairly valued, but analysts are raising estimates and Insiders are buying. 

 Today's Purchase: $FN

3/15/2016

 
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Today I purchased shares of $FN.  Very Bullish rated Fabrinet is an Industrial Optics and Electronics manufacturer.   It comes from a strong (Electronics) Industry group, enjoys upward trending price action above both short and long term Chaikin trends, and has positive money flow and relative strength.  Here's the trade: BOT +291 FN @27.31

March 15th, 2016

3/15/2016

 
  The Chaikin Power Gauge rates individual company stocks based on 85% fundamental and 15% technical  factors. The Power Gauge is a powerfully predictive model that gives me confidence about the likely performance of a particular stock compared to the overall market over the next few quarters.  I think of it as a way of predicting relative strength 6 months from now.
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Power Bars represent the aggregate relationship between Bullish and Bearish classified stocks within a  particular group, like sector or industry group for example.  So, if the Power Gauge gives me an idea of how a stock is likely to perform relative to the market months into the future, for me, it stands to reason that comparing Power Bars on individual ETF's should give me an edge by showing which are likely to perform better than the market (SPY tracks the stocks in the S&P 500)

Based on the chart above, Utilities remain solid and unwavering.  We expect outperformance to continue.  Financials (XLF)  and Tech (XLK)  have rebounded, and there's a bullish case for both sectors.  Materials (XLB) and lower are poised to perform at-market or worse, though things are changing, with more ETF's trending from Bearish to at least neutral.  

I use the above chart NOT to examine where the market has been, but where it's likely to go next.  That's the beauty of Chaikin Analytics. 

All Chaikin Lights Are Green! Except One.

3/13/2016

 
 You can check Market Conditions  on the ChaikinPowerUser site every day to get a trend of some of the key Chaikin fundamental and technical  factors that drive market activity.  Because  the Power Gauge is so powerfully predictive of how an individual equity is likely to perform relative to the market (S & P 500) over the balance of the year, over the past 3 years we've been comparing bullish/very bullish to bearish/very bearish stock Power Gauges, then rolling up the ratios and trending the data to form our directional bias, which we now move to cautiously  bullish, but not yet oversold.  
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 Despite all these positive metrics, the market is still must break its pattern of intermediate term lower lows and lower highs.  The metric that gives me confidence is Money Flow  (the green splotch below price on the Chaikin Analytics platform screen shot left), which had remained  green during the entire pullback and has been increasing in strength during this current up move.   We have institutional money buying up equities and therefore the wind at out back as small time traders.

 But like institutional traders,  we wait for  the O/B - O/S oscillator to turn  (become oversold)..whether buying the index itself or on individual stocks we're interested in buying from our watchlist.  We avoid pulling the trigger when the market is attempting to clear OVERBOUGHT by looking for a pullback below 30 (graph lower left) OR (even more powerful a signal)  a reversal in the oscillator to the upside.  Green lights on the graph above, including an oversold or rolling up   oscillator is the penultimate market condition for buying.  

​Now, the Fed needs to NOT surprise the market this week with some dumb overly aggressive move, and companies need to demonstrate through earnings that the market is worthy of its recent and continued run. 
​

$TSLA Bear Call Spread

3/3/2016

 
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Very Bearish and Overbought Tesla Motors flashed a Relative Strength Sell signal today.  After a significant run up, I'm willing to bet $TSLA is headed for a pause, and so I sold a call spread that gives me significant premium despite only having to wait 2 weeks 'til expiration. Breakeven is above $195.80.   SOLD -4 VERTICAL TSLA 100 MAR 16 195/197.5 CALL @.80. 

Oversold Buy: $ALL

3/1/2016

 
I added $ ALL to the portfolio today.   While trading near resistance at around 6, this Very Bullish stock is enjoying bullish convergence of the big 3: Money Flow, Relative Strength,  Power Gauge.   Price is up and above a rising long term Chaikin trend and today $ALL flashed an oversold buy signal.
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Buy 125 Shares ALL
Entry: 64.25
Support Using 30 DAY SMA =-61.83
Stop Loss: 59.97
Risk = 4.27 per share
Max Trade Size Based Upon No More That 10% of Equity Stock Portfolio Allocation = 800.
Max allowable loss per share (80% of Net Liquidating Value) is $800

Progress, But No "Market Up" Call from Us

3/1/2016

 
To start the week Bull - Bear Power Bar Trend is at its highest level since December 17th, but still a far cry even, where a neutral market call becomes possible.   We're running into Overbought conditions right around 1850 resistance.   Price is still well below a downward trending Chaikin long term average.   My plan is to nibble this week, though I'm still only 20% invested long. 
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